1 00:00:00,759 --> 00:00:02,280 Scenarios of one or two movements. 2 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:07,160 Depending on the current location of the price, our scenarios will be made up of 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:10,920 one or two movements until we reach the trading level, where we will look for 4 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:11,919 the entry trigger. 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:16,460 When predicting scenarios where we only need one movement to happen, the price 6 00:00:16,460 --> 00:00:20,420 will already be aligned with our plan, so we just need to wait for a simple 7 00:00:20,420 --> 00:00:22,960 action that will drive the price towards the trading zone. 8 00:00:23,830 --> 00:00:28,430 Meanwhile, scenarios of two or more movements will appear in those 9 00:00:28,430 --> 00:00:31,910 which the price is not yet in a position where we can immediately look for the 10 00:00:31,910 --> 00:00:32,910 entry trigger. 11 00:00:33,110 --> 00:00:37,190 We will need to see that the price first develops a certain action until it 12 00:00:37,190 --> 00:00:41,650 positions itself in favor of the trading level so that once there, we can 13 00:00:41,650 --> 00:00:45,530 predict the scenario involving the movement that we would need to see for 14 00:00:45,530 --> 00:00:46,530 reach the trading zone. 15 00:00:47,150 --> 00:00:50,990 We are now going to look at some examples of all the trading zones that 16 00:00:50,990 --> 00:00:51,990 previously studied. 17 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:57,740 so that we are really clear about the logic behind each of them let's start 18 00:00:57,740 --> 00:01:01,220 trading zone number one in which the price is in the middle of developing a 19 00:01:01,220 --> 00:01:07,020 trend our strategy here will be to apply the concept of a reversal movement in 20 00:01:07,020 --> 00:01:11,200 this context and applying this strategy we are simply going to wait for a one 21 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,920 movement scenario we have previously seen the downward impulse movement and 22 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:20,260 since we know that markets move in waves of impulses and corrections The key 23 00:01:20,260 --> 00:01:24,140 here will be to wait for the market to develop the correction upwards so we can 24 00:01:24,140 --> 00:01:28,220 start looking for the entry trigger immediately, applying the concept of a 25 00:01:28,220 --> 00:01:29,220 reversal movement. 26 00:01:29,540 --> 00:01:34,600 The appearance of the SOW bar, which confirms the reversal, puts us in a 27 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,220 position to wait for a potential bearish movement subsequently. 28 00:01:38,020 --> 00:01:41,500 This is the context and roadmap when applying this strategy. 29 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:46,400 I personally consider it a somewhat risky strategy to trade directly after 30 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,260 appearance of the renewal without waiting for anything else. 31 00:01:49,660 --> 00:01:52,120 but it can be useful in a high -speed context. 32 00:01:53,100 --> 00:01:56,780 Looking at trading zone number two, when we are in the middle of the development 33 00:01:56,780 --> 00:02:01,040 of a trend, if we want to apply the fast pattern strategy, the predicted 34 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:04,580 scenario will involve one or two movements depending on where we are. 35 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:09,600 If we find ourselves in this first situation, where we have already seen an 36 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:14,180 initial bearish price reaction, we simply need a single upward movement 37 00:02:14,180 --> 00:02:18,440 takes the price to our trading zone, where we would expect to look for the 38 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:22,790 trigger. In this case, we would wait for a false breakout at that previous high 39 00:02:22,790 --> 00:02:25,390 to take place before considering entering short. 40 00:02:25,890 --> 00:02:27,850 This is the one movement scenario. 41 00:02:28,670 --> 00:02:31,930 If you think that you won't be in front of the screen when that potential 42 00:02:31,930 --> 00:02:36,550 movement occurs, my recommendation is that you set an alert right in that zone 43 00:02:36,550 --> 00:02:39,590 so that it will notify you if the price finally reaches it. 44 00:02:40,250 --> 00:02:42,430 And this is the two movement scenario. 45 00:02:42,650 --> 00:02:45,330 Same situation, same strategy to apply. 46 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,940 but at an earlier moment in which that first bearish movement has not yet 47 00:02:49,940 --> 00:02:55,180 developed. If right at that moment we want to apply this strategy, to reach 48 00:02:55,180 --> 00:02:58,880 trading zone, the price would first have to make some kind of downward movement 49 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:00,420 to confirm the highest pivot. 50 00:03:00,820 --> 00:03:04,540 And then we would wait for the bullish movement that would penetrate the 51 00:03:04,540 --> 00:03:06,560 liquidity zone of the newly created pivot. 52 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:08,260 This is the dynamic. 53 00:03:08,820 --> 00:03:10,120 But be cautious. 54 00:03:10,620 --> 00:03:12,200 These are just scenarios. 55 00:03:12,820 --> 00:03:14,720 This is our job as analysts. 56 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,080 But the market will do what it wants. 57 00:03:17,540 --> 00:03:22,540 Sometimes this scenario will be accurate, but on many other occasions, 58 00:03:22,580 --> 00:03:27,060 There will be times when the price simply continues with the bearish 59 00:03:27,060 --> 00:03:30,220 that point and we won't find any opportunity to trade. 60 00:03:30,780 --> 00:03:33,220 But be aware that this doesn't end here. 61 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:38,660 We could still consider a more complex scenario made up of three movements. The 62 00:03:38,660 --> 00:03:41,980 first and second movements would be responsible for generating the pivot. 63 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:46,400 while the third would visit the trading zone created and provide us with an 64 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:47,980 opportunity to enter the market there. 65 00:03:48,780 --> 00:03:53,040 This is really what we should work on, the ability to generate multiple 66 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,800 scenarios and for the market to confirm which of them will be executed. 67 00:03:57,540 --> 00:04:02,100 The problem is that if we are not aware of all the possibilities, we will not be 68 00:04:02,100 --> 00:04:04,520 able to take advantage of the one that finally appears. 69 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,860 With respect to trading zones 3 and 4, where the strategy to be applied 70 00:04:09,860 --> 00:04:14,190 false breakouts, The approach would be the same and will depend on the current 71 00:04:14,190 --> 00:04:15,330 situation of the price. 72 00:04:15,770 --> 00:04:19,529 In this situation, since the trading zones will have already been previously 73 00:04:19,529 --> 00:04:23,490 identified, we will only need to predict a scenario with a single movement. 74 00:04:23,910 --> 00:04:27,950 This is the one that will interact with the trading zone to generate the false 75 00:04:27,950 --> 00:04:33,010 breakout. As with the previous case, if you can't be present, consider the 76 00:04:33,010 --> 00:04:36,110 possibility of setting alert when the price reaches the trading zones. 77 00:04:36,620 --> 00:04:40,900 so that you can analyze the subsequent reaction and perhaps take some kind of 78 00:04:40,900 --> 00:04:46,380 action. In essence, this context of looking for potential phase B and C 79 00:04:46,380 --> 00:04:50,600 breakouts is exactly the same as the one we just saw in which we applied the 80 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,280 strategy involving false breakouts and fast patterns. 81 00:04:54,060 --> 00:04:56,260 And we will look at it again later. 82 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:58,760 But the dynamic is always the same. 83 00:04:59,060 --> 00:05:02,600 If the pivot has already been generated, the market is going to need to develop 84 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,460 one or two movements depending on where the price is. 85 00:05:05,850 --> 00:05:06,990 to reach the trading zone. 86 00:05:07,570 --> 00:05:11,430 If the market is in the middle of developing the phase D trend movement 87 00:05:11,430 --> 00:05:14,290 see the false breakout, we can consider several scenarios. 88 00:05:15,030 --> 00:05:18,730 The first is that it will continue the bullish movement and reach the highs of 89 00:05:18,730 --> 00:05:21,890 the structure without stopping, which would not offer us any trading 90 00:05:21,890 --> 00:05:25,990 opportunity. Another scenario would involve waiting for it to go back to the 91 00:05:25,990 --> 00:05:28,730 base of the structure where it would develop the spring test. 92 00:05:29,070 --> 00:05:32,630 And the third scenario would be to wait for some type of horizontal 93 00:05:32,630 --> 00:05:37,700 consolidation with no correction to the lows before generating the second part 94 00:05:37,700 --> 00:05:39,640 of the bullish movement up to the highs. 95 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,520 Of the three possible scenarios, only the second and third would leave us with 96 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:45,520 trading opportunity. 97 00:05:46,060 --> 00:05:49,520 Here we see an example of what the spring test scenario could be. 98 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:54,000 As we can see, from the starting point, we simply need a movement that takes the 99 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,620 price from the trading zone, where we could look for the entry trigger and the 100 00:05:57,620 --> 00:05:59,000 confirmation of the spring test. 101 00:05:59,700 --> 00:06:03,950 Before it develops, we need to visualize what we expect it to do so we can 102 00:06:03,950 --> 00:06:05,630 confirm one scenario or another. 103 00:06:06,030 --> 00:06:10,750 This is a very powerful exercise which will ensure we are prepared for any of 104 00:06:10,750 --> 00:06:11,750 the predicted scenarios. 105 00:06:12,290 --> 00:06:17,270 For the example of a horizontal consolidation, said consolidation could 106 00:06:17,270 --> 00:06:21,790 with the development of a complete structure or by means of a fast pattern 107 00:06:21,790 --> 00:06:23,710 the type that we have already looked at. 108 00:06:24,430 --> 00:06:29,310 In any case, in both scenarios, we are going to need a low pivot to be 109 00:06:29,310 --> 00:06:32,130 where we can then look for the subsequent false breakout. 110 00:06:32,770 --> 00:06:36,570 Therefore, the scenario to be considered here would have at least three 111 00:06:36,570 --> 00:06:40,970 movements, the first two for the generation of the pivot and a third 112 00:06:40,970 --> 00:06:43,110 for the false breakout at the liquidity zone. 113 00:06:43,690 --> 00:06:48,330 In this case, it develops a small reaccumulation structure where we can 114 00:06:48,330 --> 00:06:52,950 easily identify its lower limit and where the two pivots also coincide. 115 00:06:53,290 --> 00:06:57,310 and we can clearly see how a subsequent false breakout at the liquidity zone 116 00:06:57,310 --> 00:07:00,930 causes the continuation of the upward movement to the upper end of the 117 00:07:00,930 --> 00:07:01,909 structure. 118 00:07:01,910 --> 00:07:05,110 Again, this is the key to predicting sound scenarios. 119 00:07:05,430 --> 00:07:10,310 Based on the context and the roadmap, we project the various possibilities in 120 00:07:10,310 --> 00:07:12,350 which the market could offer us an opportunity. 121 00:07:13,330 --> 00:07:17,430 If we see that the market is right at the moment of the breakout, and if all 122 00:07:17,430 --> 00:07:20,530 signs suggest that the structure is highly likely to be in accumulation, 123 00:07:21,310 --> 00:07:23,950 We should follow the roadmap in line with this idea. 124 00:07:24,450 --> 00:07:29,150 And at that point, the closest trading zone will be the level of the creek or 125 00:07:29,150 --> 00:07:30,970 resistance. But be careful. 126 00:07:31,290 --> 00:07:36,130 To reach that level, the price needs to develop two movements, two key actions. 127 00:07:36,770 --> 00:07:40,890 One, on the hand of the breakout, and on the other hand, the movement that acts 128 00:07:40,890 --> 00:07:42,550 as a test after the breakout. 129 00:07:43,350 --> 00:07:46,630 The key here is that we want to buy, due to the context. 130 00:07:47,150 --> 00:07:51,430 But the price is not in an attractive trading zone since it is moving towards 131 00:07:51,430 --> 00:07:54,170 key zone and we don't know what might happen there. 132 00:07:54,670 --> 00:07:57,670 This is why I never recommend you trade at breakouts. 133 00:07:58,110 --> 00:08:01,930 Therefore, in this case, we should look for a two -movement scenario. 134 00:08:02,210 --> 00:08:06,670 In the first, we would position ourselves in favor of the trading level 135 00:08:06,670 --> 00:08:10,710 second movement would generate a visit to this level where we should assess the 136 00:08:10,710 --> 00:08:13,890 interaction between the participants to decide on a possible entry. 137 00:08:14,540 --> 00:08:18,740 Continuing with the development of the accumulation structure, at the point at 138 00:08:18,740 --> 00:08:22,660 which the market has developed the bullish breakout, the methodology's 139 00:08:22,660 --> 00:08:27,080 suggests that the most likely outcome is a visit to the resistance level of the 140 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:30,540 broken structure, which we would now consider a support level. 141 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:36,159 At that point, using this roadmap as a basis of being already positioned in 142 00:08:36,159 --> 00:08:40,200 favor of the trading level, our scenario would only consist of a single movement 143 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,520 if what we are looking for is a simple test on the level of the structure. 144 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:49,320 As we know, this could just be a false breakout, upthrust, after which the 145 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:50,900 would re -enter the equilibrium zone. 146 00:08:51,260 --> 00:08:55,800 But initially, we should be directionally biased towards an uptrend, 147 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,120 seeing that the false breakout at the bottom of the range and breakout 148 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:01,440 of the uptrend meet the ideal characteristics. 149 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:07,180 But as you already know, the market could behave in some other way. For 150 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:11,360 it could develop a new minor structure at that point, or some type of fast 151 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:15,640 pattern. This is exactly the same as the scenario proposed previously. 152 00:09:15,940 --> 00:09:20,620 The dynamic is always the same. Since we do not know how the market will move, 153 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:24,520 we predict the situations that are most likely appear and that give us the most 154 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:29,580 confidence. For this alternative scenario to the simple test, we should 155 00:09:29,580 --> 00:09:33,540 wait for the creation of the pivot and the false breakout of this pivot, which 156 00:09:33,540 --> 00:09:36,880 would comprise a minimum of three movements from the high of the bullish 157 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:41,160 breakout. This would be for a rapidly developing horizontal consolidation 158 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:45,940 scenario. We could still allow for the possibility of the full development of a 159 00:09:45,940 --> 00:09:46,759 minor structure. 160 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:48,480 In essence, nothing changes. 161 00:09:48,780 --> 00:09:53,200 We would also need that first movement that generates the selling climax. 162 00:09:54,060 --> 00:09:58,280 Subsequently, the second movement would be formed by the AR and all the 163 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:02,100 subsequent sideways movements before the development of a potential spring, 164 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:03,620 which would be the third movement. 165 00:10:04,460 --> 00:10:09,520 Regardless of whether the consolidation is fast or slow, it will always be made 166 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:13,680 up of the same basic elements, the generation of the first pivot and its 167 00:10:13,680 --> 00:10:16,800 breakout, whether with a longer or shorter duration. 168 00:10:17,500 --> 00:10:22,240 On this occasion, we see that what he finally develops is a fast pattern with 169 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,820 false breakout at two previous pivots, which would confer greater strength to 170 00:10:26,820 --> 00:10:27,820 the scenario. 171 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:32,540 And finally, now in the middle of the development of the trend, we can apply 172 00:10:32,540 --> 00:10:37,100 same concepts once again. In other words, wait for the generation of a 173 00:10:37,100 --> 00:10:38,460 its subsequent false breakout. 174 00:10:39,300 --> 00:10:43,520 As you can see, the fundamental element is always the false breakout. 175 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,900 We have insisted on this point throughout the course because there is 176 00:10:47,900 --> 00:10:50,120 that this behavior offers us an advantage. 177 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:55,140 And as I always say, if you carry out the simple exercise of analyzing any 178 00:10:55,140 --> 00:10:59,120 chart, you will see that practically every impulse movement originates from a 179 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:00,120 prior false breakout. 180 00:11:00,970 --> 00:11:04,170 The market obviously will not always follow our predicted scenarios. 181 00:11:04,550 --> 00:11:08,450 We will often find that we have to change our sentiment based on how the 182 00:11:08,450 --> 00:11:13,870 moves. The key is to continuously analyze the reaction of participants as 183 00:11:13,870 --> 00:11:15,430 information reaches the market.